8 Best Defensive Dividend Growth Stocks

These high-quality dividend growth stocks have the highest defensiveness scores and may offer a somewhat safer shelter for your investment dollars, provided you buy them at reasonable valuations.

Author:
Ferdi Scheepers
Publish date:
Dec 20, 2021

In the December edition of my 7 Dividend Growth Stocks series, I used a developed by David Van Knapp [DVK] as my primary screen. The system awards points to stocks based on satisfying common notions of safety rather than for being members of a particular sector.

In that article, I identified the best defensive stocks that traded below my risk-adjusted Buy Below prices.

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based on how stocks satisfy common notions of safety. I like the system, identifying stocks with defensive characteristics regardless of sector membership.

[SSD]

[VL]

Dividend performance during the Great Recession (2007-2009)

Defensiveness scoring system developed by David Van Knapp (source: A Different Look At 'Defensiveness'). — *Defensiveness scoring system developed by David Van Knapp (source:* *A Different Look At 'Defensiveness'*).

Stocks with lower Beta’s, higher SSD Dividend Safety Scores, better VL Safety Ranks, and better Great Recession Performance, score higher in DVK’s defensiveness scoring system. The maximum possible score is 12 (3 points in each of the four categories).

maintains and publishes a of more than 730 dividend growth stocks with dividend increase streaks of at least five years. The latest (dated December 17, 2021) contains 732 stocks.

to determine quality scores and sort stocks in descending order by their quality scores, breaking ties using the following metrics, in order as necessary:

SSD Dividend Safety Score
Forward Dividend Yield

sector and one of three , either Defensive (D), Cyclical (C) or Sensitive (S).

Here are descriptions of the other columns:

quality score

Fwd Yield: forward dividend yield for a recent share Price

5-Avg Yield: 5-year average dividend yield

5-DGR: 5-year compound annual growth rate of the dividend

5-YOC: the projected yield on cost after five years of investment

C#: , a popular metric for screening dividend growth stocks

5-TTR: 5-year compound trailing total returns

VL Safety Rank: 's

VL Fin Stren: Value Line's ratings

MS Econ Moat: 's

S&P Cred Rating: 's

SSD Divi Safety: '

Buy Below: my risk-adjusted buy below price

–Disc +Prem: discount or premium of the recent share Price to my Buy Below price

Price: recent share price

, , and Portfolio Insight. Additionally, I using each stock’s five-year average dividend yield. With up to eleven estimates and targets available, I ignore the outliers (the lowest and highest values) and use the average of the median and mean of the remaining values as my fair value estimate.

Stocks Scoring 12 For Defensiveness

I own the five highlighted stocks in my DivGro portfolio.

With its strong forward yield of 3.25% and a discount of 19% below my Buy Below price, Lockheed Martin (LMT) presents the best opportunity here. LMT’s payout ratio is low at 39%, so the company has ample room to continue increasing its dividend in the foreseeable future.

*Overvalued stocks scoring 12 for defensiveness*

Air bovada and Chemicals (APD) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW) have attractive metrics, but investors should wait for better entry points: APD below $292 per share and ITW below $227 per share.

Stocks Scoring 11 For Defensiveness

Merck & Co (MRK) is trading 22% below my Buy Below price and offers a generous 3.65% forward yield. I think MRK presents a good opportunity for dividend growth investors. MRK’s payout ratio is low at 44%, meaning it is likely that the company will continue to increase its dividend at a generous rate.

*Overvalued stocks scoring 11 for defensiveness*

The Home Depot (HD) is trading 8% above my Buy Below price of $360. The stock yields only 1.70% but has a spectacular 5-year dividend growth rate of 19.4%. I would advise investors to wait for HD to drop below $360 per share before buying shares.

Stocks Scoring 10 For Defensiveness

I like Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) here, given its 3.51% forward yield and impressive 5-year dividend growth rate of 16.2%. Moreover, the stock is trading 26% below my Buy Below price of $83. At 27%, the company’s payout ratio is low for biotechs.

Another stock worth considering is Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), which offers a generous 5.01% forward yield and a reasonable (for Utiltiies) 5-year dividend growth rate of 5.8%. It is likely that future dividend increases will be more modest, as the stock’s payout ratio is 66% but increasing rapidly.

*Overvalued stocks scoring 10 for defensiveness*

Lowe's (LOW) looks interesting given its impressive 5-year dividend growth rate of 16.9%. While the company’s forward yield is a bit low at 1.29%, notice how well the stock has performed on a trailing total return basis over the past five years. Just be sure not to pay more than $235 per share!

Concluding Remarks

DVK’s defensiveness scoring system identifies stocks with defensive characteristics regardless of sector membership. In this article, I identified the best defensive dividend growth stocks in Dividend Radar. There are 26 Dividend Radar stocks that scored 12 points, 36 that scored 11 points, and 50 that scored 10 points.

In the stocks that scored 12 points, 18 or 69% are from the traditional Defensive sectors. Likewise, 19 or 53% of those that scored 11 points, and 24 or 48% of those that scored 10 points, are from the traditional Defensive sectors

I would recommend looking at the following stocks, depending on your investment style and goals: